Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is set to visit New Delhi on Monday, marking a crucial diplomatic engagement amidst a complex and fragile thaw in relations with India. The two-day visit, confirmed by India’s Ministry of External Affairs, is a significant step forward after years of heightened tensions and a military standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). This high-stakes visit is not merely a courtesy call; it is poised to be the 24th round of Special Representatives’ Talks on the boundary question with India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, and a bilateral meeting with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. This visit comes ahead of a crucial trip by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, underscoring Beijing’s proactive push to stabilize and reset the bilateral relationship.
The backdrop to Wang Yi’s arrival is a mosaic of recent developments signaling a cautious de-escalation. After the deadly Galwan Valley clashes in June 2020, which plunged ties to their lowest in decades, both nations have taken small, yet deliberate steps toward normalization. These include the completion of the disengagement process at key friction points like Depsang and Demchok, the resumption of tourist visas for Chinese nationals after a five-year gap, and the restart of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra pilgrimage. These moves, coupled with China’s recent relaxation of curbs on urea exports to India and a reported plan to resume direct passenger flights, suggest a pragmatic, if tentative, shift in approach.
Border at the Heart of the Matter
Despite these positive gestures, the core issue of the border dispute remains unresolved and is the primary focus of Wang Yi’s visit. The Special Representatives’ (SR) talks, a key mechanism for resolving the boundary question, have been a critical channel for communication between the two countries. The fact that Wang Yi, as the designated SR for China, is traveling to India specifically for these talks highlights Beijing’s recognition of the need for high-level dialogue to address the core dispute. Both sides have stressed the importance of maintaining peace and tranquility along the LAC as the fundamental basis for the development of the broader bilateral relationship.
However, the path forward is fraught with challenges. While disengagement has occurred in most areas, the complete de-escalation and a long-term resolution of the border issue are yet to be achieved. India has consistently maintained that the normalization of ties hinges on a complete return to the status quo ante of April 2020, before the standoff began. The SR talks will likely delve into finding mutually acceptable confidence-building measures to bolster peace and tranquility, including the resumption of border trade.
Economic and Geopolitical Confluence
The diplomatic push from Beijing comes at a time of significant geopolitical realignments. The recent trade tensions between India and the United States, sparked by US tariffs on Indian goods in response to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil, have created a unique window of opportunity for China. Chinese officials have publicly opposed the US’s tariff system, positioning Beijing as a potential partner for New Delhi amid its strained ties with Washington. This confluence of events adds a new layer of complexity, with China attempting to leverage its economic relationship with India to mend fences and perhaps drive a wedge in India’s growing strategic partnership with the US.
The economic agenda is also a key component of the discussions. China has been a significant supplier of critical industrial inputs to India, and the recent curbs on exports of rare earth magnets and fertilizers have impacted Indian industry. The visit will likely include discussions on resuming these supplies and exploring a broader trade package. This move is seen as a way for China to showcase its willingness to cooperate on economic matters, a stark contrast to the recent trade disputes with the US.
New Diplomatic Era or a Temporary Thaw?
The visit is not just about the border; it is a test of whether a new, more stable diplomatic era is possible. The upcoming SCO summit in Tianjin, which Prime Minister Modi is expected to attend, provides a high-level stage for a potential meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Wang Yi’s visit is seen as a preparatory step to ensure a smooth and productive meeting between the two leaders. The successful outcome of these preparatory talks would set the tone for the SCO summit and could lead to further high-level engagements and the revival of various dialogue mechanisms that were stalled since 2020.
Ultimately, the success of Wang Yi’s visit will be measured by its ability to translate the recent positive gestures into concrete actions. While gestures like the resumption of visas and the pilgrimage are important, they are not sufficient to rebuild the strategic trust that has been shattered by the border standoff. The real measure of success will be a clear roadmap for complete disengagement and de-escalation along the LAC. Without a meaningful and lasting resolution to the border dispute, the bilateral relationship will remain fragile, and any thaw will likely be temporary.
This visit, therefore, is not a simple diplomatic formality. It is a critical juncture where Beijing and New Delhi have an opportunity to move beyond a prolonged period of hostility and find a way to manage their differences while pursuing areas of mutual interest. The world will be watching closely to see if this diplomatic push can finally break the ice.
